On the 15th and 16th of April the NATO SFA COE took part in the “Strategic changes in Security and International Relations" within the International "Strategic Conference STRATEGIES XXI" organised by the Romanian National Defence University.
Launched in 2005 by "Carol I" National Defence University, STRATEGIES XXI aims to establish and strengthen international partnerships with civilian and military educational and research institutions discussing future trends and challenges for security and international relations.
After an initial plenary session discussion of EU security and defence culture, digital platforms, human performance modification theory and methodology in science, the Conference was divided into three breakout sessions to cover various topics.
In those sessions, certain aspects emerged that fall within the scope of some of the NATO SFA COE’s ongoing projects.
· Military foresight: the case of Poland.
Translating NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis trends to the Polish context reaffirmed the holistic approach to security and operational environment analysis characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. In the 2035 security environment scenarios the role of the multi-domain approach will be pivotal and the military instrument should be adaptive and flexible to face countering threats and adversaries, which can operate below the threshold of armed conflict and engage in non-lethal activities in the so-called grey zone.
· Challenges and opportunities for intelligence services in the context of technological development and information overload.
To mitigate the impact of information overload and to exploit the predominance of digitalization there is a need for the intelligence field to move from the concept of superiority of information to the concept of superiority of knowledge considering the challenges and opportunities of the modern information flow.
· Syria, "the war with multiple proxies".
The War in Syria provides evidence and examples of a complex conflict where strategic and powerful interests carried out by multiple proxy actors have led to violations of international humanitarian law and human rights with consequences that both today and in the near future will impact the balance of power in that area.
· The contribution of modern military leadership in implementing the sustainable development goals.
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) are the blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all. Modern military leadership, with a combined use of appropriate leadership styles and qualities (adaptive leadership with a multi-domain approach in a comprehensive framework), could be the key to implement the SDGs.
In conclusion, due to the complexity of future scenarios involving different dimensions and domains, it is fundamental to strengthen the importance of the multi-domain approach for the “sustainable” military instrument of power (MIoP) that needs to be ever more flexible and adaptive.
In dealing with new crises where multiple proxy actors are involved, the enhancement of the capacity to map and analyse the actors and their influence in a certain area can give a tangible support to planning, Grey Zone concept development and Human Capital development (for future leadership and Advising capabilities). The SFA approach can be fundamental for the enhancement of the Future Leadership and Advising skills. In this regard, NATO will be able to exploit its wide experience in conducting SFA activities and the wealth of research developed on those topics by the NATO SFA COE and the SFA Community of Interest.